On Economic Predictions

I must say that I am very impressed with the ability of various economists and other prognosticators to accurately diagnose the month, day and hour that the recovery will take hold. Seriously, how can they even show their faces? Their understanding and prediction of the crisis itself is matched only by the CIA's success predicting the dissolution of the Soviet Union at end of the cold war. Yet they spew their pithy opinion as though it were knowledge -- and I hear them parroted by family, friends and colleagues alike -- all day long, every day of the week. Of course we are depressed. The world isn't as horrible as the news.

Here is my prediction. The economic crisis will be over when we trust it is over. It will be followed by an economic recovery. Early trusters will cause it. Later trusters will engage later. Business trusters will need to believe it, because they will drive it.

The bailout may help.

A much greater help would be for all of us to turn off NPR and CNN. It will help tremendously if we all completely abandon the news for a few months: Total news blackout. I predict that, if we completely ignore the media for three to six months, we will return in late summer or fall to find the world in much better shape than we thought possible. Otherwise, the media output will continue to put pressure on the availability and price of cheap wine.

I should admit that, once the blackout starts, I may continue occasionally to read David Brooks' column, and sneak a secret peek at Gail Collins. We all have our addictions.

So let's all go out together and buy something today, and every day.

Regarding the economic turn-around, I hope it is not long.