Sunday, February 10, 2008

Democrats would be wrong...

to assume that they can benefit during the November general election from the apparent disagreement among Republican factions during the primaries.

Civil competition during a primary helps a party in the general election -- as long as the money holds out. (This premise holds true for the current Democratic race as well.)

While Dobson, Limbaugh and Colter may lead a band of socially conservative ideological purists into the desert, no one in that wing has any reticence about changing directions. They will compete in full force at the Republican convention. They will exuberantly exert the absolute extent of their influence on their constituency during the general election. Their oxygen is derived from the game. They will support McCain.

Limbaugh and Dobson do not need to explain, or even acknowledge really, radical shifts in their positions, or dramatic changes in direction. Their flock do not evaluate or critique the logic used to develop their conclusions. Their particular constituency accept their conclusions on faith, not evidence. The assertion that "they forced" McCain to select Huckabee or Thompson as his running mate will drive their Volte face. They will support McCain.

The defection of Limbaugh's Lemmings is ephemeral.

The negotiations between the wings of the Republican party are well underway. History suggests they will come to a satisfactory - and competitive - resolution.

Democrats,
    it
        would
            be
                an error
    to interpret
these events
as favorable.

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